“Big dreams. Bold projections. No track record.”

We’re currently working on a business valuation for a newly established company that’s raising funds. The only forecast we’ve got? One made by the company itself — and of course, it’s glowing. 🌞

But as any investor or advisor knows, a bright forecast doesn’t mean much if the assumptions behind it are shaky.

So how do we verify the numbers?

✅ Step 1: Understand the industry.
Is there actual demand? Any credible market research?  Growth rates, trends, and competitive dynamics to see if the forecast fits reality — or fantasy.

✅ Step 2: Verify the investment & cost assumptions.
For new companies, everything from rent to salaries to equipment costs must be built from scratch. We cross-check these with publicly available sources — like salary surveys, cost benchmarks, or filings from similar businesses.

✅ Step 3: Ask around — carefully.
We also reach out to people in the industry who aren’t involved in the deal to get an unbiased view. We don’t mention names, just ask, “Do these numbers make sense to you?”

At the end of the day, the management’s projection is used as a starting point — then build a new version based on reality is built.

Because when you’re valuing a new company, the real work starts after they hand you the forecast.

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💡 Want a sanity check on a business forecast? ORNA can help you dig into the assumptions and find what’s real.