Valuing a new project is NOT the same as valuing an existing business.And honestly… it shouldn’t be treated the same.

When we value an existing company, we have real evidence:
📌 Actual performance
📌 Actual margins
📌 Actual customer behavior
📌 Actual industry benchmarks

But when we value a new project?
We walk into a room full of assumptions. Verified assumptions, yes — but still assumptions.

And assumptions do one dangerous thing:
They love to look more beautiful than reality.

That’s why, for new projects, we never take assumptions at 100%.
We stress test, discount, and stay conservative — because a spreadsheet can promise anything, but the market doesn’t care about your Excel.

Are there exceptions?
Yes.
If the business has guaranteed income — a power plant with signed PPAs, for example — the cash flows are much more predictable.

But for businesses like restaurants, manufacturing without guaranteed orders, or services with no committed customers…
Projecting “everything will go well” is basically gambling.

Valuation isn’t about being optimistic. It’s about being realistic — even when the model tries to charm you.

#ORNA #Valuation #Consult #Project