A detailed forecast doesn’t mean a realistic valuation

A client once gave us a very detailed forecast for valuation.

And honestly—we were impressed.

Everything was there.
Revenue broken down by source.
Costs clearly structured.
SG&A thoughtfully laid out.

It made our job easier… but not simpler.

Because no matter how detailed a forecast is, one question remains:

Can it actually happen?

Here’s how we pressure-test it:

1. The company vs itself
Have they ever performed at this level before?

2. The company vs the market
Are peers achieving similar numbers?
Does the industry support this growth?

If the answer is “not really” to both, we can’t just take the numbers at face value.

We adjust.
We challenge.
We tone things down.

Because in valuation, optimism without evidence is just… a guess.

At the end of the day, every number needs something solid behind it—
either track record or market reality.

Without those, it’s very hard to justify being optimistic.

#ORNA #BusinessValuation #DCF